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 Apophis 2029/2036

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Vortexasylum
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PostSubject: Apophis 2029/2036   Sun Jan 16, 2011 3:38 pm

I looked around and could not find anything on Apophis here in the forum. If there is, I apologize in advance for starting a new topic. It seems to me that with all the concerns about 2012 and this apocalyptic fervor that has so many enthralled as to our fate, that we would be giving a lot more attention to what we know to be a relatively close and possible encounter with Apophis in 2029 and again in 2036. Though projections of the timing and proximity have changed and probably will again I think this is where most attention should be focused. Please share your thoughts and say what you think we should be doing in order to prepare for such an event. Can we change its trajectory and if so how? Do you think that there could be an Apophis ET connection?
Thanks
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glider
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PostSubject: Re: Apophis 2029/2036   Sun Jan 16, 2011 5:15 pm

Hello Vortexasylum,

I read about this a few years ago and at that time it was not looking to good for ol' Earth. Currently from NASA:

"It was subsequently changed later and the likelihood of a strike was downgraded "somewhat".A majority of the data that enabled the updated orbit of Apophis came from observations Dave Tholen and collaborators at the University of Hawaii's Institute for Astronomy in Manoa made. Tholen pored over hundreds of "previously unreleased" images of the night sky made with the University of Hawaii's 88-inch telescope, located near the summit of Mauna Kea.

Tholen made improved measurements of the asteroid's position in the images, enabling him to provide Chesley and Chodas with new data sets more precise than previous measures for Apophis. Measurements from the Steward Observatory's 90-inch Bok telescope on Kitt Peak in Arizona and the Arecibo Observatory on the island of Puerto Rico also were used in Chesley's calculations.

The information provided a more accurate glimpse of Apophis' orbit well into the latter part of this century. Among the findings is another close encounter by the asteroid with Earth in 2068 with chance of impact currently at approximately three-in-a-million. As with earlier orbital estimates where Earth impacts in 2029 and 2036 could not initially be ruled out due to the need for additional data, it is expected that the 2068 encounter will diminish in probability as more information about Apophis is acquired.

Initially, Apophis was thought to have a 2.7 percent chance of impacting Earth in 2029. Additional observations of the asteriod ruled out any possibility of an impact in 2029. However, the asteroid is expected to make a record-setting -- but harmless -- close approach to Earth on Friday, April 13, 2029, when it comes no closer than 18,300 miles above Earth's surface."

-----Quotation marks are mine.

Now, I don't know about you but 18,300 miles is a hair's breath away to me. Don't forget that a "near miss" literally means a hit. Wouldn't tell us anyway. And too, don't think I'd wanna know.


http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2009/oct/HQ_09-232_Apophis_Update.html
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PostSubject: Re: Apophis 2029/2036   Sun Jan 16, 2011 7:12 pm

I'm with you on that glider, that's cutting it close. The problem I have with calculations beyond 2029 is the certainty that its trajectory will be altered at that point and calculations for that change are at best a crap shoot. The spin and even its shape could be changed due to gravitational tides (is it an iron rock?) and I have not checked yet but has anyone determined the position and proximity of the moon at this time? If determined we can clear that hurdle, I'm wondering if we should at the very least place a position monitor on it to accurately determine its future path while it's that close. Some say its size 270 meters or 885 ft in diameter is not enough for a planet killer but I'm not so sure about that. There's too many variables like where it hits, a tropospheric explosion, or impact. I would think if it hit somewhere in the Mediterranean that it would devastate a great deal of Europe. I would think an impact in any of the seas would set off a tsunamis that would wipe out many of the worlds coast line.
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glider
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PostSubject: Re: Apophis 2029/2036   Sun Jan 16, 2011 7:29 pm

Hello Vortexasylum,

Vortexasylum wrote:
I'm with you on that glider, that's cutting it close. The problem I have with calculations beyond 2029 is the certainty that its trajectory will be altered at that point and calculations for that change are at best a crap shoot. The spin and even its shape could be changed due to gravitational tides (is it an iron rock?) and I have not checked yet but has anyone determined the position and proximity of the moon at this time? If determined we can clear that hurdle, I'm wondering if we should at the very least place a position monitor on it to accurately determine its future path while it's that close. Some say its size 270 meters or 885 ft in diameter is not enough for a planet killer but I'm not so sure about that. There's too many variables like where it hits, a tropospheric explosion, or impact. I would think if it hit somewhere in the Mediterranean that it would devastate a great deal of Europe. I would think an impact in any of the seas would set off a tsunamis that would wipe out many of the worlds coast line.

Yep. So, as one can see, it does NOT have to be a "planet killer" to be a remarkable event.
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